Archive for September, 2004

Cats, Reptiles and Recessions

Sunday, September 26th, 2004

Stocks retreated last week with all the major indices skidding to multi-week lows. The dollar slipped as well but remains tightly range-bound, while gold edged up a bit. And crude oil rallied toward $50 per barrel again while the smart guys running this country and its finances continued to scratch their heads, still bewildered but not bemused about being wrong over and over and over again.

The S&P 500 backed off sharply last week after bumping up against the upper boundary of its 2004 trading channel. It was the same story it’s been all year: Hit the bottom and reverse. Hit the top and reverse again. Like clockwork.

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Closer To The Cliff

Monday, September 20th, 2004

Stocks were mostly stronger last week as the S&P500 climbed to a new 2-1/2 month high while the Dow finished somewhat weaker. The dollar continued to do not much of anything in particular and gold followed suit. Meanwhile crude oil futures rebounded to a 1-month high, easily surpassing the $45/barrel mark.

The market’s rebound from the August low continues, as does the same boring, range-bound action that’s been going on all year. In relative terms this latest rally has been a decent run for the S&P500, but in overall terms we have yet to see this market do something it hasn’t already done repeatedly for the past nine months.

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Back And Boring As Ever

Monday, September 13th, 2004

Stocks edged higher last week as the three major indices all posted new multi-month highs. The dollar retreated while gold managed to recoup a bit of its recent losses. Crude oil slipped back a bit but remains steadfastly above the $40 level. Meanwhile the expert analysts who never expected it to hold over $30 are all patting themselves on the back for “predicting” it couldn’t get over $50.

After a well-deserved rest, I regret to inform the reader that nothing much has changed in my outlook. The market’s summer doldrums are over, but those expecting that a bit of fun & sun would mellow my sour disposition and inch me closer toward the bullish camp will find themselves deeply disappointed.

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